Storms and hurricanes

[chuft]

Hurricane season is getting going out there

https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tra....315,-20.566,3

[BRBFBI]

Hurricane season is getting going out there

Wake me up when it actually hits.

[boredjedi]

Hurricane season is getting going out there

That hurricane name is ominous

[chuft]

I don't like the look of this new orange one.

[chuft]

Spaghetti models are beginning to appear








18z is 18:00 UTC so as always these models are some hours out of date. It's about midnight UTC as I post this, so these models are six hours behind the data.

[chuft]

Still pretty disorganized. This is ECMWF model.


https://www.windy.com/?22.634,-33.047,5

[chuft]

A new model projection, midnight UTC





Here's a third model though 12 hours out of date





Everybody where I work is going to be following the National Hurricane Center, Windy.com, and https://spaghettimodels.com/
obsessively for at least the next week and likely longer, unless it becomes clear at some point this sytem will veer off into the Atlantic harmlessly. Bermuda doesn't seem to care about storms, that place is bulletproof, probably because of the rock cliffs it has instead of low altitude beaches. I've seen big storms go over it time and again with no damage reports of consequence. Unlike the Bahamas. Man they were literally under water a few years ago from one.



This is the Grand Bahama International Airport

Obviously airports are not supposed to be under the ocean.

This was what it looked like when the ocean left.

[LazyPooky]

Still pretty disorganized. This is ECMWF model.


https://www.windy.com/?22.634,-33.047,5

We need to wait a few days, see what it does at that point, because there is a water/air flow heading north and one that goes straight forward. Let's hope for the first option.

[Buzz]

We need to wait a few days, see what it does at that point, because there is a water/air flow heading north and one that goes straight forward. Let's hope for the first option.

you seem a bit worried...might I inquire whether you are at present residing within your former colonies?

[LazyPooky]

you seem a bit worried...might I inquire whether you are at present residing within your former colonies?

I was just showing some empathy.

[chuft]

Thanks Pooky.




Spaghetti models differ from each other



Seems likely to be a strong one. This is just 168 hours out. Could easily be a Cat 5 by the time it makes landfall. Disturbing that it would be a Cat 3 while still in the Atlantic. Coastal waters are much hotter.

[chuft]

Looking pretty good at this point.

[boredjedi]

Not looking too good for up this way unless it turns out towards the Atlantic

[chuft]

The pasgetti's indicate it will turn hard right







https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#05L

[LazyPooky]

Tropical storms, hurricanes, and cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere usually move north, away from the equator, when they come close to land. So there's a chance this will happen here as well. Sometimes it has so much energy that it also moves over land, after which it dies out. This one looks not so large, less energy.